In this way, I found out today that the 2017 election results boiled down to two gubernatorial elections in which blue states elected Democrats. This isn't that surprising. What is surprising is the media reaction, which, time and time again stated that this was a huge upset and big setback for the current administration.
This, I think, is yet another symbol of a massive internal problem with the Democratic party and many of its constituents: they are deeply convinced that they always win and everyone likes them, and that if they don't, it's not their fault.
Let's get a few things straightened out here. Two states which habitually vote blue in national elections electing Democrats isn't particularly meaningful, and it's not a setback to Donald Trump; he lost both states in the election. Those states always go blue, and will, in all probability, will next time too, no matter what party their governor is. Trump won because he pulled in states like Florida, Ohio, and my home state, Pennsylvania, which hasn't gone red since 1988.
Electing a couple of Democrats is a win for the DNC on paper, but what does it get them in regards to Donald Trump exactly, and how is this a setback for him? The WORST that can happen is he loses these states in 2020 - like he did in 2016. They don't actually matter to him because he doesn't need them to win again.
I'm not trying to be political here, by the way. This is just the strategic reality. It's nice these guys won, if you're a Democrat living in those states, but it doesn't really have much bearing on Trump, nor will it have much bearing on national politics. If you live in VA or NJ, this will affect you. If you don't, it probably won't.
So why is the media trumpeting this as a big win for the DNC? One answer is, of course, to sell copy. News outlets primarily exist to help people with their confirmation biases. Just look at the popularity of Fox News, which is hilariously partisan and terrible, but also massively popular. People want to hear what they want to hear. And that's fine if your job is to make money by providing information people want, even if it's not the whole story. The problem comes when people start buying into that information because it makes them feel good.
Let's get some uncomfortable truths out of the way right now: you didn't lose this election because of Russia, fake news, or because everyone is an idiot or a racist. You lost because you ran an unpopular candidate whose campaign was horribly mismanaged. The Clinton campaign ignored crucial pockets of the voting population that the Trump campaign brilliantly picked up and convinced to vote red, which swung states like PA in their favor. You can espouse environmentalism, which I believe to be a worthy cause, without literally telling coal miners (who vote) that you are going to put them out of business. You can espouse social justice (another fundamentally valid cause) without calling every single person you disagree with a racist.
The Clinton campaign didn't. They alienated a lot of people. They lost.
What I'm trying to say is that you didn't lose because the Russians hacked you. You lost because you suck at politics.
This is FANTASTIC news.
See, if you REALLY lost because of the Russians, Fake News, or because people are secret racists, you can't do much about it. How will you stop the Russians from hacking the next election? How are you going to stop people from distributing fake news? How will you change the mind of a racist (and I know from personal experience that this is basically impossible)? Ultimately, these sorts of things are largely outside your control. But your strategy, and this is the real reason you lost, isn't outside your control. I believe that the Democrats can, and might, do very well in the 2018 elections, but to do so, they have to change - and fast.
Step one is to take a good, long, and HONEST look at your party. Stop pretending that everyone loves you and that, in a fair contest, you'll always win. A lot of people do NOT love you. (And before you bring up the popular vote, lots of people in California loving you doesn't count because you're always going to win that state anyway.) You do NOT always win. And by pretending that two state gubernatorial elections are massive victories, you are committing the same mistake you did in 2016. Hillary was a sure thing, remember? Major news outlets gave her a 99% chance of winning. The polls had her up by 6% or more. So what incentive did Democrats have to vote? They were going to win, and win big. If you didn't feel like getting up that morning, what incentive were you given to do so?
You should have waken up, both metaphorically and literally. But at least then, you had an excuse. Now, you don't. Stop pretending. You're not winners and you're not popular. You need to change that, not double down on trumpeting in the media that you're popular and that if you don't win it's only because of the Russians or the racists.
Here's a few ways you can do that.
One, stop alienating voters. A significant number of people voted for Donald Trump. Not all of them were Republicans, because the numbers don't add up. So this is something you have to deal with: centrists found his campaign more compelling than yours. When you demonize Trump voters, when you tell them the person you voted for is a moron, a racist, a tyrant, whatever, and that he was only voted in because of racists like them, what exactly do you think your chances are of winning their vote in the future? In my experience, very few people are actually racists, and unless they are, calling them racists is a surefire way to get them to strongly dislike you.
This brings me to suggestion number two: have a message. Right now, the Democratic message is, essentially, fuck Donald Trump. And while that's probably popular enough, it's not convincing enough. Lots of people who voted Trump didn't actually LIKE Trump, but they loved his message, which was, under all the rhetoric and reality-show clown tactics, basically that America is good, but there were things that needed fixing, and we, as Americans, were going to make it great again. Hillary's message was the exact opposite: that America was a terrible backward country full of racists. Doom and gloom pervaded her campaign. If there's one thing you don't ever do in politics, no matter who you are or which side you're on, it's tell voters that America sucks. This is basic stuff, guys and girls. Americans, by and large, love their country. Say what you will about Bernie, who I didn't even like, but his message was way more compelling because it was essentially positive and uplifting.
As an aside, you really should have run him. He wouldn't have won, in my view, but it would have been a lot better than it was.
These are your two biggest problems: you are alienating the voters and you have no message. You could do really well as a party by addressing these yesterday. But there are some smaller things I think might help you out too. For one, drop gun control. I don't care what YOU personally think of guns. It is a well known fact that gun control is poison to US political campaigns. Over a third of Americans own guns, and far fewer than a third of Americans want increased restrictions on them. Gun sales are hitting record highs, as are applications for concealed carry permits. If this doesn't convince you, also consider that gun culture is ingrained in the American mind, the NRA is one of the strongest and most effective lobbying groups that exists in American politics, and that gun violence is declining and has been for decades. Sure, you see high profile mass shootings in the news frequently, but statistically, fewer and fewer people die from guns every year and gun ownership becomes more popular. You don't have to like it, but it's the trend. The more you harp on this, the more people you are going to scare off. Politicians espouse gun control because it brings in big money from high profile billionaires like Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, and George Soros, but is the money worth the loses? Only you can answer that, but uinless you live in MA, NJ, CT, NY, or CA, don't make this a big part of your campaign unless it's REALLY a big issue for you, in which case proceed at your own risk.
That's not to say you don't have some great issues at your disposal. Environmentalism is increasingly popular, and not just with Democrats. I would argue that most centrists and even a fair amount of Republicans see the value of environmental conservation. There is no stronger message than let's save the planet, and even hardcore GOP members can't possibly be blind to the value of electric cars and alternative energy, even if they have to pretend they are for their more recalcitrant constituents. Remember how I just told you that gun control was a pet issue you need to drop because it's killing you politically? I firmly believe that the GOP needs to do the same with their insistence that climate change does not exist. In the same way that Democrats are reluctant to drop gun control because there's money in it, Republicans are loath to drop this issue because there's money in it from oil and gas. But they should drop it, because it doesn't play well with the public, and having a lot of money in your war chest doesn't seem valuable if you don't win because of it. Environmentalism is only going to get more popular as resources diminish. Throw in the fact that going green can easily save you money, and you have a winner with the voters here.
That's it really. Take some responsibility as a party. Stop blaming others for your faults. Stop alienating voters by calling them racists and threatening to curtail their right to defend themselves and their families. Focus on things voters want, like sustainability. I've really only mentioned two issues here, so start thinking of others. Where are you losing voters? Where are you doing well? I'm no political advisor, but I feel like minimizing the former and focusing on the latter can't hurt. And above all, have a message other than "we're not the opposition and the opposition is bad." A lot of people know the Republicans are bad, but they've given us a reason to vote for them. Don't tell me why I shouldn't vote for THEM. Tell me why I SHOULD vote for YOU.
Or keep pretending everything's peachy - and keep losing. Your choice.
I know no one inside the DNC is really going to read this, but a few of my friends who are interested in politics might. A lot of my friends lean left. Realistically, it's up to them to put pressure on their party here. As a middle-class gun owner with investments, in the current political and economic climate I don't have a reason to care much about the state of things. If you do, lean on your reps to make things better by actually being effective. I'd love to see the Democrats put up a good fight and I'd even like to see them win if they become a party that cares again and is willing to take the effort.
Hell, if they did that, I might even vote for them. Stranger things have happened.
