It's time to talk about this. If the New York Times thinks it's important enough to warrant a front-page editorial, I think it's important enough to discuss too. That's about the only thing I think the New York Times and I will ever agree on where guns are concerned.
The difference, however, between myself and NYT is that my argument, as I detail it below, is not based on hyperbole, emotion, fear, or the desire to sell copy. In fact, it isn't very stirring at all, because it's based on numbers.
It is not within the scope of this post to talk about why the NYT article advocating gun control is rather poorly written, but it is within the scope, I believe, to note that it does not seek to put forth a particularly compelling argument based on the facts. It is, for the most part, an emotional appeal. What facts it does put forth are largely and objectively false. For example, according to the Times, the weapons used in the San Bernardino shooting were "lightly modified combat rifles." This is, strictly speaking, untrue. In fact, the rifles began life as California compliant semiautomatic AR-15s. California has some of the strictest restrictions on firearms in the country. It does not sell combat rifles. If what the NYT says is true, either the weapons were not "lightly" modified or California allows the sale of combat rifles.
This is but one example. It is not the one I wish to address. What I would like to address is the title, which indicates that gun violence in America is "epidemic."
This is a common claim by advocates of gun control: that gun violence is common in the United States, especially compared to the rest of the world. In fact, the biggest, and in fact, most effective argument for gun control is that gun violence is significantly higher in the United States than in other comparable countries. However, this argument, the single most compelling one, is significantly flawed.
First, let's examine the claim that gun violence is common in America, and let's do it numerically. We can do this by referencing the CDC's latest available data on gun deaths: that from the year 2013.
Let's get this out of the way now to avoid claims of cherry-picking: this data is reasonably representative (and you are welcome to fact-check that yourself using the back data from the CDC and other sources) and gun control advocates often make the claim that gun violence is on the rise, so picking the latest available data should actually give them an advantage here if that claim is accurate.
These are the facts: in 2013, there were 2,596,993 deaths in the United States. Of these, 33,636 were caused by firearms.
Let's get the first equation out of the way. These numbers mean that, out of all the deaths in America in 2013, guns caused 1.3% of them. (Actually people with guns caused them, but for the sake of brevity, I have chosen different wording. Anywhere this wording is present, it is implied that the guns themselves are not literally responsible.) For comparison, you were slightly more likely in 2013 to be killed by "nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis." You were 1.7 times as likely to die of pneumonia or influenza. You were most likely, in fact, to be killed by cancer (17 times more likely than being shot) or heart disease (18 times more likely). In fact, suicide and murder are not in the top ten causes of death in the United States, and that includes all types of suicide and murder, not just those committed with a firearm.
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK9_2013.pdf
Viewed in this context, it is difficult to see gun deaths, whether suicide or murder, as particularly common by any definition. It becomes increasingly difficult to justify gun control on the grounds of mass safety when you begin to look at what kind of weapons gun control is primarily concerned with: so-called "assault weapons."
Before we delve deeper into the numbers, let's clear up what an assault weapon is: a legal term and a legal term only. An assault weapon is generally defined by largely ergonomic features, such as grips or stocks, and by appearance. These do not change how the weapon's operating system functions.
The closest equivalent in a technical sense is a semi-automatic rifle, a commonly held civilian weapon which fires one bullet every time the trigger is pressed. I was unable to find a good source for cyclic rate of semiautomatic fire, so here is a video of a man intentionally firing 100 rounds as fast as possible from a 100-round magazine:
Now feel free to check me on this, but I calculated that at approximately 240 rounds per minute (RPM). To account for variability, let's settle on 300 RPM. Keep this number in mind, because it is important.
Please also note that you would not be as likely to hit your target at that rate of fire. Even automatic weapons are generally fired in bursts to achieve any degree of accuracy. The reasons for this have to do with shooting technique and recoil and I would be happy to discuss them with anyone reading this, but they fall largely outside the scope of this post. Suffice to say, 300 RPM is not a particularly effective fire rate for a semi-automatic rifle.
Now that we've found the closest mechanical equivalent in firearm parlance to an "assault weapon" (which again does not exist in a technical sense), let's look at the closest linguistic equivalent: assault rifle. An assault rifle is a rifle firing an intermediate cartridge and is capable of select-fire (automatic or burst) capability. This simply means that the gun will fire multiple rounds when the trigger is pressed once. Assault rifles generally fire around 700 to 800 rounds per minute.
Most modern assault rifles fire a cartridge known as 5.56x45 mm NATO. The civilian version which is so close as to make no difference and actually mildly less powerful, is called .223 Remington. These are effectively the same round. What seperates a civilian semiautomatic rifle like the AR-15 from a military assault rifle like the M16A4 or M4A1 is the ability to fire in fully automatic or burst mode.
As you can see, a semiautomatic rifle is very different and far less effective in combat than an assault rifle. The fact is that while assault rifles are legal for civilian ownership, they are heavily regulated, extremely rare and prohibitively expensive. Most of the time when you hear about an assault weapon, you are hearing about the AR-15 rifle, a semiautomatic weapon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assault_rifle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Assault_Weapons_Ban
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AR-15
https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/national-firearms-act
If you are still confused, here is a good summary: http://www.assaultweapon.info.
The reason this absolutely matters is because the term assault weapon largely applies not only to rifles, but to a very specific subset of rifles: those having ergonomic features which mimic military service rifles. Back to the numbers: in 2013, 285 people were killed with rifles.
The report I got that information from does not mention what kind of rifles these were, so it's likely not all of them were even assault weapons. Gun control which seeks to ban assault weapons, and this is the most common and high profile type of gun control, is targeting a weapon which is used in AT MOST 3.3% of firearms murders.
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/table-20/table_20_murder_by_state_types_of_weapons_2013.xls
You may note that 285 is not 3.3% of total gun deaths. In fact, in the United States in 2013, there were 8,454 murders with firearms which means that only a quarter of firearms deaths were, in fact, murders. The other 75% are suicides, and that's important because another argument for the gun control lobby is that more guns leads to more suicide.
In this, the gun lobby may have a point. After all the United States does, as gun control activists claim, have a higher rate of suicide than some comparable countries. It also has a higher homicide rate than some comparable countries. But is that difference statistically significant?
If, as those seeking tighter restrictions on firearms claim, guns are the sole cause of this, one would expect there to be a proportional increase in gun ownership with suicide and homicide rates. Again, let's take a look at the numbers.
The homicide rate per 100,000 people in America is 3.8. The amount for gun ownership in the United States is 112 out of 100. Let's compare that to countries with lower rates of gun ownership, which are also comparable economically and culturally to the United States, specifically one gun control advocates like to use and their best example by far: Australia.
Australia has 21.7 guns per 100 people and a homicide rate of 1.1 per 100,000. On the surface, this is pretty solid evidence that gun control works. However, things get a bit more hazy when you look at another country with low gun ownership and strict gun control: Brazil. Brazil has 8 guns per 100 people. Fewer even than Australia. The homicide rate there is 25.2 per 100,000. This is why you don't hear gun control advocates talking about Brazilian gun control very much, even though it is extremely strict.
Of course you might argue that the reason for this is that Brazil is more unstable than Australia, and that's exactly the point. It is extremely unlikely that one single factor (i.e. gun ownership) would be the sole cause of higher homicide rates. This being admitted, it's hard to claim, as many do, that restrictions on gun ownership a la Australia or Brazil, would significantly reduce homicides.
A simple fact to put this all in perspective: America has the most guns per 100 people in the world and almost twice the guns per 100 people than the next country (Serbia). In fact, America has more guns than people. Yet we rank 121 (out of 218) countries in homicide. If guns are the primary cause, or even related in a major way, we should be be experiencing the homicide rates of Hondouras or Venezuala, at 90 or 53 homicides per 100,000 people (and rates of 6.2 guns per 100 persons and 10.7 guns per 100 persons) respectively.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country
This is the primary reason you will often hear gun control advocates talking about America's higher rate of GUN violence rather than homicide or other type of violence. With more guns we certainly have more GUN violence. But you're not very likely to be killed in America, and your odds of being killed with a gun in your entire lifetime are about 1% according to the CDC data cited earlier.
Of course, as noted earlier, a lot of these deaths are suicides. So let's look at those rates too. The suicide rate in America is 12.1 suicides per 100,000 people. We rank 50th in the world. The highest rates of suicide are in Guyana (44.2 suicides per 100,000 people with 14.6 guns per 100 persons) and South Korea (28.9 suicides per 100,000 people yet 1.1 guns per 100 persons).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate
No matter how you look at it, the only real conclusions you can draw, by the numbers, are that GUN RELATED homicides and suicides are higher in America than in other countries, NOT that homicides and suicides are proportional to gun ownership. This latter assumption, which the numbers do not support, is the lynchpin of the most common and convincing gun control argument.
There are, of course, other arguments for gun control, and I'd be happy to take them up elsewhere and at another time, but I think it's important to examine the actual statistics here, because there is a sense in America that our unusually (and it is significantly higher than in any other nation) high rate of gun ownership leads to an unusually high level of deaths, and it simply does not seem to be the case as far as I've been able to tell from running the numbers. I'm not a statistician, but you're free to look over the same numbers and check my math.
Of course, I only used one year here, but the general trend of homicide has been declining for many years, while gun sales continue to break records. I found it difficult to track suicide rates but the long term trend appears to be downward albeit with a few spikes recently. If you would like to look over the available data and calculate gun ownership compared to homicide or suicide, you are more than welcome to do so and prove me wrong, but having looked over it, I feel that using the most current data is not only the most relevant course of action, but is in fact consistent with earlier years. If anything, it seems like 2015 will suffer far far fewer gun deaths despite huge gun sales.
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/
http://time.com/4138559/gun-sales-san-bernardino-mass-shooting/
By the numbers then, there simply seems to be little statistical merit to the idea that gun violence in the United States is "epidemic" or that our death rates are definitely connected to our rate of gun ownership. As with most problems, those of the United States do not stem from one source and cannot be solved or mitigated simply by changing one or two factors. Death and violence in America, as everywhere, are complicated issues, and require complicated solutions, not simply restrictions on civilian firearms ownership.
I could go into why it SEEMS like there is a gun violence epidemic in America, but that would require a discussion of race (we only care when white suburbanites die), culture, the media, and other aspects which are beyond the scope of this post. I believe I have delved into this subject to a far greater extent that most people with whom I converse on it, whose opinions seem to stem from anti-gun lobby groups or the media, rather than CDC, FBI, or verifiable and cited tables on Wikipedia, which is by no means the unreliable database it once was. As I've stated numerous times, feel free to check the numbers yourself. They will tell you what you need to know.
To summarize: if we take 2013 as a relevant example, firearm deaths constitute 1.3% of deaths in the United States each year. 75% of these are suicides. Only .00016% of the population total is killed with guns each year and if the sources I've used here are to be believed, that number will be half that this year if rates remain steady, despite record gun sales. The United States has the highest rate of gun ownership but falls largely into the middle of rankings of every country by murder and suicide rate, slotting both below and above countries which have stricter, even extremely strict, gun control. Of murders committed with guns in the United States in 2013, 3.3% were committed with any type of rifle. The amount of these which were "assault weapons" is unknown.
In short, and this is, frankly, the bottom line borne out by the evidence, there is no "epidemic" of gun violence caused by assault weapons. It simply does not exist.